Are We Running Out of Oil?
"Non-renewable" "Limited" "Run Dry" - These are some of the buzzwords used in reference to oil. Many people are talking about the coming oil extinction, but are we really going to run out of oil soon? The NCPA (National Center for Policy Analysis) states that "Estimates of the world’s total endowment of oil have increased faster than oil has been taken from the ground." This is due to new technologies which increase the amount of oil that we can use as well as the discovery of new oil fields.
Ever since oil was first used for energy people have warned of its limited lifespan. It is beginning to sound like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. The NCPA lists many of the limited oil claims that turned out to be false, including an advertisement from 1855 - four years before the first U.S. oil well was even drilled!
The problem is that oil figures are actually much different from what is traditionally stated. When someone says, "We have enough oil for only 10 more years," they mean that with current technology and the number of oil fields we can/are using, without changing anything, we will have enough oil for 10 more years. A number of advances (such as the Electric Downhole Steam Generation process and the Discoverer Deep Seas) have increased the amount of "usable" oil. Also, large oil fields are being discovered which increase the number of possible sources.
"But isn't the staggering increase in price due to a limited supply?" First of all, no. There are many things that can raise the price of oil (and I don't mean George Bush). Second of all, the price really isn't that high. Sure it seems high since it went up rather quick, but if you adjust for inflation we're not doing so bad as can be seen in the chart below (courtesy of Wikipedia).
Ever since oil was first used for energy people have warned of its limited lifespan. It is beginning to sound like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. The NCPA lists many of the limited oil claims that turned out to be false, including an advertisement from 1855 - four years before the first U.S. oil well was even drilled!
The problem is that oil figures are actually much different from what is traditionally stated. When someone says, "We have enough oil for only 10 more years," they mean that with current technology and the number of oil fields we can/are using, without changing anything, we will have enough oil for 10 more years. A number of advances (such as the Electric Downhole Steam Generation process and the Discoverer Deep Seas) have increased the amount of "usable" oil. Also, large oil fields are being discovered which increase the number of possible sources.
"But isn't the staggering increase in price due to a limited supply?" First of all, no. There are many things that can raise the price of oil (and I don't mean George Bush). Second of all, the price really isn't that high. Sure it seems high since it went up rather quick, but if you adjust for inflation we're not doing so bad as can be seen in the chart below (courtesy of Wikipedia).
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