Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Great Depression Part II?

Lately, many people have been talking about the current economic downturn in the US as if it were a repeat of the Great Depression, but I'm not sure that's really appropriate at this point.

The Political Machine states, "The important thing is to prepare for your new life during the New Great Depression, which will probably last at least a dozen years and end with the United States being one of the world's poorest, most-backward nations."

For those of us that were born after the Depression, and those that experienced it and somehow forgot, let's review the Depression:

  • Crop prices fell by about 60%
  • 13 million people became unemployed; Unemployment was up to 19% in 1938
  • Industrial production fell by nearly 45% between the years 1929 and 1932
  • Home-building dropped by 80% between the years 1929 and 1932
  • From the years 1929 to 1932, about 5000 banks went out of business
  • Bread lines were a common sight in most cities
  • As much as 2.5 million people abandoned their homes in the South and the Great Plains and went on the road to search for jobs and food
  • Hundreds of people lined up every day outside unemployment offices in major cities
  • Millions of people got their food at soup kitchens

So far, I haven't seen a single "bread line", and as far as I know there aren't long lines every day at the unemployment office. The unemployment rate as of October is 6.5%. New home construction dropped 24.8% from 2006 to 2007, but construction had been near record highs for several years so a drop was inevitable.
There is even some question as to whether we are technically in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research studies the economy and formally designates economic expansions and recessions. "Recession" is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product. The US GDP did drop .5% in the 3rd quarter, but had increased 2.8% in the 2nd quarter. The group has used other factors to determine this is officially a recession, but it isn't as easily labeled as many would have us think.

Whatever you label it, clearly the economy has taken a downturn from recent years and we must be careful to prevent a repeat of the past, but we must also be careful not to freak out and cause a repeat of the past. As John D. Rockefeller said, "These are days when many are discouraged. In the 93 years of my life, depressions have come and gone. Prosperity has always returned and will again."

We also must be strong through this time of correction in our economy and not sacrifice what makes America great just to build up our 401Ks. We must remember the words of President Roosevelt from a radio address in 1938:

"Democracy has disappeared in several other great nations, not because the people of those nations disliked democracy, but because they had grown tired of unemployment and insecurity, of seeing their children hungry while they sat helpless in the face of government confusion and government weakness through lack of leadership....Finally, in desperation, they chose to sacrifice liberty in the hope of getting something to eat. We in America know that our democratic institutions can be preserved and made to work. But in order to preserve them we need...to prove that the practical operation of democratic government is equal to the task of protecting the security of the people....The people of America are in agreement in defending their liberties at any cost, and the first line of the defense lies in the protection of economic security."